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Another
form of logical analysis is known as inductive reasoning (compare with
argument by analogy, infra). Unlike deductive reasoning which derives
its conclusion by reasoning from the major (i.e., general) premise to
the minor (i.e., particular) premise, inductive reasoning reaches its
conclusion in just the opposite manner. Inductive reasoning works by asserting
a series of minor (i.e., particular) premises to support the conclusion,
a major (i.e., general or universal) premise. As with deductive reasoning,
legal conclusions reached by inductive reasoning are not absolute. At
best they may only be used to establish more likely than not the truth
of the fact(s) of the stated conclusion.
To see
how inductive reasoning compares with deductive reasoning, consider the
following example:
(1) A's oral conveyance of land in Case A is invalid.
(a minor premise)
(2) B's oral conveyance of land in Case B is invalid. (a minor premise)
(3) C's oral conveyance of land in Case C is invalid. (a minor premise)
*
*
*
(26) Z's oral conveyance of land in Case Z is invalid. (a minor premise)
CONCLUSION: Therefore, ALL oral conveyances of land are invalid. (a
major, universal premise).
The
analytical basis for this general conclusion is that since twenty-six
factually similar (i.e., particular) instances of oral conveyances of
land have all been invalid, a general conclusion may be made that all
future such conveyances will also be invalid. Hence, inductive reasoning
allows the broad conclusion (a major, universal premise statement) to
be inferred that "ALL oral conveyances of land are
invalid."
Of
course, such generalized conclusions are only as good as the particular
information from which they are derived. Certainly, at least from a statistical
point of view, the greater the number of individual instances that are
examined before a general conclusion is reached, the more reliable the
ultimate conclusion. However, within the context of legal analysis, absolute
certainty is almost never attained through inductive reasoning.
For
example, what if in the preceding example a twenty-seventh case, Case
AA, was discovered in which an oral conveyance of land was found by the
court to be VALID? be modified in some manner: "Almost all
oral conveyances of land are invalid" or "All oral conveyance
of land are invalid, except in Case AA."
Inductive
reasoning underlies much of the common law system of case analysis. Lawyers
and judges (and law students) analyze numerous individual cases, and then
they attempt to derive broad, generalized statements (or rules) of law
that explain those cases.
One
of the greatest dangers inherent in relying upon argument by inductive
reasoning is the tendency to reach a general conclusion too quickly. Often
referred to as "jumping to a conclusion," this hazard is particularly
common among beginning law students. Consider the following conclusion
derived through the process of inductive reasoning:
(1) In Case A, the court held that an oral conveyance of land
was invalid. (a minor premise).
(2) In Case B, the court held that an oral conveyance
of personalty was invalid. (a minor premise).
Conclusion: Therefore, ALL oral conveyances are invalid.
(a major premise).
After
reading a few more cases involving oral conveyances of both real and personal
property, the student would likely discover that not all
oral conveyances of personalty are invalid, although most (if not all)
conveyances of land are invalid. The conclusion to which this student
"jumped" was much too broad. It was not supported by the case
law. Had the student been less hasty in reaching this conclusion, and
taken time to examine more cases that addressed the question of oral conveyances
of all types of property, this mistaken conclusion would not have occurred.
However, the problem in this example is not with the inductive reasoning
that was used; it is with the limited number of cases that were examined.
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